Evernorth Buy Signal

Updated recently

⚠ Data notes (2)

XRPN is not trading yet (listing expected 2026-10-08). Using AACI as a proxy price — treat the signal as indicative only.
Dry powder (cash) is a low-confidence estimate: PLACEHOLDER. ~$300M gross cash proceeds were reported, but how much remains undeployed after closing is not yet disclosed. Update from the closing 8-K.

Buy likelihood score Version A

Moderate

Moderate likelihood — some room for accretive issuance, but the premium is not compelling.

Key metrics

Reported holdings ÷ basic shares

mNAV

1.54×

market cap ÷ XRP value

Premium / discount

+54.2%

vs. XRP held per share

XRP per share

4.371

108.22M shares

XRP holdings

473M

as of 2026-10-07

XRP price

$1.4925

live · binance, coinbase, kraken, bitstamp, okx

AACI price

$10.06

live · yahoo

Market cap

$1.09B

treasury $705.95M

Dry powder

$40M

low confidence

Score breakdown

Transparent, rule-based: base points from mNAV plus modifiers.

Component	Detail	Points
Base (mNAV curve)	mNAV 1.54×	49.7
Premium persistence	1 consecutive day(s) above 1× mNAV	+1.0
Recent capital raise	No capital event on record yet	0.0
Total	clamped to 0–100	50.7

History

Hourly, recorded only from live prices.

mNAV

Buy likelihood score

XRP exchange liquidity

Ask-side order-book depth near the mid price on major public venues — roughly how much XRP could be bought without moving price more than 1–2%.

Venue disclosure: Evernorth has said it will use "all mechanisms available" across "hundreds of global venues". No preferred exchanges have been publicly confirmed. Large buyers also use OTC desks and algorithmic execution that public order books do not show.

XRP within +1% of mid

7.9M

≈ $11.84M across venues

XRP within +2% of mid

10.29M

≈ $15.45M across venues

Days of buying power

2.9

$40M at ≤10% of 24h volume

Dry powder vs +1% depth

338%

>100% means it would sweep the visible book

Venue	Pair	Mid	Spread	Asks ≤ +1%	Asks ≤ +2%	Bids ≥ −1%	Bids ≥ −2%
Binance	XRP/USDT	1.4926	0.7 bps	1.66M	2.25M	1.61M	1.96M
Coinbase	XRP/USD	1.4926	0.7 bps	1.62M	2.24M	2.56M	4.84M
Kraken	XRP/USD	1.4925	0.6 bps	3.04M	3.45M	3.15M	4.19M
Bitstamp	XRP/USD	1.4925	0.1 bps	812.16K	813.16K	838.68K	876.49K
OKX	XRP/USDT	1.4926	0.7 bps	781.81K	1.53M	674.52K	1.23M

Books as of 2026-10-04 06:27 UTC. Venues truncate depth differently; USDT pairs are treated as USD. Visible depth is a lower bound on real liquidity.

How this signal works

Evernorth is an XRP treasury company. When its stock trades above the value of the XRP it holds (mNAV > 1×), it can sell new shares and use the cash to buy XRP — and every existing share ends up backed by more XRP. That makes buying accretive and gives management a strong incentive to raise capital. When the stock trades at or below NAV, issuing stock to buy XRP dilutes holders, so open-market buying becomes far less likely (beyond any cash already on hand).

Core metrics

XRP value = holdings × XRP price
Market cap = shares × XRPN price
mNAV = market cap ÷ XRP value, premium = mNAV − 1
XRP per share = holdings ÷ shares

Score (0–100)

Base points are read off a piecewise-linear curve of mNAV: 0× → 0, 0.8× → 8, 1× → 20, 1.3× → 40, 1.8× → 60, 2.5× → 80, 3.5× → 100. Modifiers are then added and the total is clamped to 0–100:

Premium persistence (±10): Consecutive daily closes above (bonus) or below (penalty) the accretive threshold. Full effect after 10 days.
Recent capital raise (+8): A recent equity raise, ATM usage or capital event means fresh cash and an active issuance program. Full within 14 days, fading to 0 by 60.
Dry powder (+10): Cash + undrawn facilities as a share of the XRP treasury. Cash can buy XRP without any issuance. Full at 10% of treasury.
Market momentum (±5, off): Optional: XRP 24h momentum. Off by default; flip 'enabled' to include it.
Yield reinvestment (+5): Yield earned on held XRP that can be reinvested. Only counts in horizons with a yield weight.

The three versions

A · Simplified — last reported holdings and basic share count; base + persistence + recent raise.
B · Estimated — holdings plus announced purchases and accrued yield; fully diluted shares (convertible notes as-converted); adds dry powder. The range shows the score under the uncertainty bands on holdings, shares and cash.
C · Multi-Horizon — each horizon blends current mNAV with a trailing average (short term: 85% current / 3-day avg; medium term: 50% current / 30-day avg; longer term: 30% current / 90-day avg) and re-weights the modifiers: near-term leans on recent raises, longer-term on persistence, cash and yield.

Limitations

This is a transparent heuristic, not a model of management’s intentions. Evernorth may raise capital and not buy XRP immediately, buy via OTC desks, use yield strategies, or buy back stock. Holdings and share counts change between filings. The thresholds are editorial choices and are published in config/scoring.json so anyone can audit or tune them.